Harrisonburg VA Housing Market Report: October 2026

September made it two slow months in a row.

Home sales in Harrisonburg and Rockingham County came in 12% below last September. Add August, and the two months together produced 232 sales, compared to 249 in the same two months of 2025. Those are the first two months of 2026 to come in below the prior year.

The numbers that matter most this month are not the closings, though. They are the homes going under contract, the homes sitting for sale, and the mortgage rate. All three moved in the same direction, and together they describe a market that is shifting toward balance. Here is the full picture, and what it means if you are buying, selling, or trying to do both this fall.

Sales: a slow September inside a flat year

Even with two soft months, the longer trend is close to flat. Sales over the past six months are up about 1% from the six months before that, and sales over the past 12 months are up about 3% from the prior 12.

Within that total, existing homes (resales, not new construction) sold 11% less often this September than last, but are still up about 3% over the past year. Detached homes sold about 3% less often over the past year.

So the year is not falling apart. The slowdown is concentrated in the last two months, and the next section explains why I expect it to continue a little longer.

Pending sales: five months of decline

The number of homes under contract has fallen for five straight months. There were 184 pending sales as of mid-October, down from 316 in April and 280 a year ago.

Contract activity from June through September ran below the same months last year. It picked up slightly in September, which is encouraging, but a pending sale typically takes 30 to 60 days to become a closed sale. With fewer homes under contract today, I expect October and November closings to come in below last year as well.

This is the single most useful number in the report. Closed sales tell you what happened two months ago. Pending sales tell you what is about to happen.

Inventory: rising for three months

Fewer contracts leave more homes on the market. There are 239 homes for sale right now, compared to 214 a year ago, and inventory has risen for three straight months.

That is still not a large number for a county of this size. But for the first time in a while, the trend is up rather than down, and buyers who have been waiting for more options are starting to get them.

Prices: holding, with a strong September

Prices have not followed sales down. The median sales price was about 6% higher in September, though a single month can swing on which homes happened to close. Over the past six months, the median is up about 1%, and over the past 12 months it is up less than 1%.

The longer view: the 12-month median across all home types has held between $345,000 and $349,000 for three years. By segment:

• Detached homes: the 12-month median rose from roughly $390,000 to $405,000 over the past year, on about 3% fewer sales.
• Existing (resale) homes: the median also rose about 3% over the past year.

Prices are holding. Sellers are just waiting longer for the buyer who will pay them.

Mortgage rates: back above 7%

This is the biggest change since last month’s report. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.40% in Freddie Mac’s October 8 survey. That is up from 7.28% the week before, 7.03% on September 24, 6.95% on September 17, and 6.76% on September 10, the figure I cited in last month’s report. A year ago the rate was 6.30%. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.73%.

In monthly terms: on a $405,000 home with 20% down, principal and interest at 7.40% comes to about $2,243 a month, compared to about $2,005 at last year’s 6.30%. That is roughly $238 more every month for the same house, and about $140 more than at the 6.76% rate from just four weeks earlier. (Illustration only. It leaves out taxes, insurance, and any HOA dues, and your rate depends on your own loan.)

Rates moving from the high 6s to the low 7s in a month is the most likely explanation for the drop in pending sales. Buyers did not disappear. Their monthly payment went up.

If you’re buying

• You have more to choose from than you did this spring, and more homes are sitting long enough to let you see them twice before you decide.
• Run the payment before you shop. At 7.40%, the same house costs meaningfully more per month than it did a year ago. Know your comfortable monthly number, not just the loan amount you qualify for.
• Negotiate on terms, not just price. With fewer competing offers, a closing-cost credit or a rate buydown paid by the seller is a reasonable ask on many homes right now.

If you’re selling

• Price from the last 60 days, not the spring. Prices are holding, but the buyer pool is smaller. A home priced off April’s comparables will sit.
• Expect fewer showings and a longer wait for the right offer. That is not a sign something is wrong with your home. It is the market.
• Take a qualified offer seriously the first time. There are 184 homes under contract today against 316 in April. The next offer may be slower to arrive than it was six months ago.

If you’re selling and buying at the same time

This is the question I am getting most often this fall. Fewer pending sales and more inventory change the order of operations for a move-up or right-sizing move. I wrote a separate post on the four ways to sequence a sale and a purchase in this market: Selling and Buying at the Same Time.

The bottom line

September was the second slow month in a row, and the pending-sales number says October and November will likely be slow too. Inventory is up, rates are above 7%, and buyers have more leverage than they had this spring. Prices, so far, are holding. This is a market shifting toward balance, not one falling.

If you are weighing a move in Harrisonburg or Rockingham County and want to talk through what these numbers mean for your home, reach out.

Data sources: Harrisonburg and Rockingham County MLS residential sales data through September 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, October 8, 2026. The monthly payment example is an illustration, not a loan quote. Market statistics describe past sales and do not predict future results. All real estate advertised is subject to the Federal Fair Housing Act, which makes it illegal to advertise any preference, limitation, or discrimination because of race, color, religion, sex, handicap, familial status, or national origin. Valley Homes Team is committed to equal housing opportunity.